What's going on with the Maple Leafs lineup as the season draws near? (2024)

We’ll start with another reminder, as much to you as to me: The way a team — in this case, the Maple Leafs — lines up to start is rarely, if ever, the way it finishes.

That said, we are creeping up on the start of the regular season, which means we’re getting an increasingly realistic look at how the lineup is shaping up for the opener Oct. 13.

This is pretty close to the latest look at camp:

The only exception is William Nylander, who didn’t travel with the Leafs to Gravenhurst, Ont., where the team is bonding for a few days before Saturday’s preseason finale. (Nylander is not two weeks removed from his second vaccination and therefore not permitted to enter the facilities in cottage country. He’ll be considered fully vaccinated for opening night.)

So, what’s interesting here:

•Auston Matthews’ status: We have to start with Matthews, who didn’t sound optimistic about playing in the final preseason game against Ottawa. “That might be cutting it a little bit close right now,” he said. Matthews is still recovering from offseason wrist surgery. “It’s getting better,” he said of his left wrist. “There’s been good days. There’s been bad days where it didn’t feel as good as I’d like.” It’s not a sure thing that he plays in the opener against Montreal, though he and the Leafs have been hopeful that he’ll be ready by then. If not, they’ll wait until he feels comfortable. No need to rush their most important player along.

•Ilya Mikheyev in the top six: Evidently, Mikheyev’s offseason trade request hinged on opportunity. He wanted more of it — perhaps a slot higher than the third line, where he played for the bulk of last season. A chance to produce more offence too conceivably. Mikheyev has said little on the matter, and his agent Dan Milstein has declined to comment. What we appear to be looking at here— with Mikheyev joining John Tavares and eventually, Nylander — is an attempt by the Leafs to give him just that kind of increased opportunity. Mikheyev’s most frequent linemate last season was Pierre Engvall, followed closely by Alex Kerfoot. But he also garnered nearly 150 minutes with Tavares. It’s not as if he got no opportunity higher in the lineup. He just didn’t produce much there to justify it. His limited playmaking and misfiring shot looked a little out of place. Sheldon Keefe seems to be granting him another chance to prove he belongs here — from Day 1. If he produces with Tavares and Nylander, the Leafs coach will be happy. If not, Keefe has at least given Mikheyev the opportunity the winger feels he deserves. How long is the leash? Five games? 10?

It’s easy to see Michael Bunting nab this spot if Mikheyev doesn’t stick the landing.

Does Mikheyev have more to offer offensively than he showed last season? Maybe. He was among the Leafs leaders in five-on-five scoring when his wrist was sliced midway through the 2019-20 season, while playing primarily with Kerfoot.

How much of that was real and how much good fortune? It remains to be seen.

It is worth wondering how much, if at all, last season’s punch-less performance was related to that injury. One thing that really plummeted for Mikheyev last year: The number of shots he attempted five-on-five. In fact, Mikheyev got off nearly as many shots in those spots in 39 games as a rookie (84) as he did over 54 games last year (86) — in far fewer minutes. Was that leftover residue from a pretty devastating injury?

I’m not convinced he sticks here, nor do I think the puzzle pieces are optimized when he’s on the second line. A David Kampf-led third unit is strongest, I’d argue, with Mikheyev and Ondrej Kase (filling Nylander’s spot in Gravenhurst) on the wings, less so imposing with some combination of Kase, Kerfoot, Engvall and Wayne Simmonds.

•Those third and fourth lines are … interesting: They’re really 1A and 1B, or rather, 3A and 3B. If this really is the way Keefe goes next week, it’s conceivable these two units play similar minutes. The Kampf group will get buried in the defensive zone. Bunting, Kerfoot and Jason Spezza will do their thing at the other end. There’s fun potential with that trio. Bunting and Kerfoot are both on the smaller side, but they also play pretty pesky games — Bunting in particular. He may play well off Spezza in the O-zone with his propensity for attacking the net.

It’s mildly surprising to see Bunting start lower in the lineup. I’m reluctant to call it the fourth line as I’m not convinced this group will play less than the Kampf unit. But even I, the one driving the Michael Bunting bandwagon, have to remember he’s played only 26 NHL games. He still has to prove he can sustain the show he put on in Arizona last season (10 goals in 21 games). Keefe makes him do just that in the current setup while also placating Mikheyev.

•Uncertainty on the third pair: I still have to think that Travis Dermott and Rasmus Sandin will end up together here when the season starts. But some doubt inevitably creeps in when they’re not lined up together less than a week before the start of the season. So what’s going on? Last Sunday, Dermott hurt his left calf at practice. He was supposed to play the next night in Ottawa but was a late scratch. Evidently, Keefe hoped to play him Tuesday night at home as well. That suggests the coaching staff wanted to see more of him, and more of him, perhaps especially, on the right side.

Dermott, remember, is attempting to play there full time for the first time in the NHL. He’s only dabbled there in the past. The fact the 24-year-old is back on the left, for the time being, and not teaming up with Sandin feels at least notable.

He played his first two games of the preseason on the right, once with Morgan Rielly and once with Carl Dahlstrom.

Does it mean the Leafs are really going to start the season with Sandin and Timothy Liljegren on their third pair? Possibly. Not likely though. For one thing, it would mean keeping only 12 forwards and thus exposing Engvall, in all likelihood, to waivers. All just to keep Liljegren, who doesn’t require waivers, and maybe send an early message to Dermott?

(Our fearless leader James Mirtle has wondered about a trade. Otherwise, the Leafs may just attempt to sneak Engvall through if they decide not to keep him.)

“I think he’s done a good job,” Keefe said of Dermott. “Obviously he was banged up a little and didn’t get to play in those games for us, so we didn’t get as much of a look as we wanted, both with him and with partners we wanted to play with him.”

The Leafs could theoretically return Sandin and Liljegren to the Marlies and have veteran Alex Biega start on the right, with Dermott on the left. That doesn’t seem likely either though. Why block Sandin? Why repeat what happened early last season, when Sandin had a roadblock (Mikko Lehtonen) placed in front of him at camp? His time is now. He belongs in the NHL.

So, maybe this is just a gentle nudge from the head coach, a reminder to Dermott, who signed a two-year contract in the offseason, that more will be required of him. The Leafs will be asking him to absorb responsibilities that went to Zach Bogosian last year, primarily on the PK. It’s a big year for him to prove he’s capable of more than he’s shown to this point in over 200 NHL games.

Stay tuned.

— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.

(Top photo of Ilya Mikheyev: Francois Lacasse / NHLI via Getty Images)

Jonas Siegel is a staff writer on the Maple Leafs for The Athletic. Jonas joined The Athletic in 2017 from the Canadian Press, where he served as the national hockey writer. Previously, he spent nearly a decade covering the Leafs with AM 640, TSN Radio and TSN.ca. Follow Jonas on Twitter @jonassiegel