Monday Morning Leafs Report: Can the Maple Leafs really afford to stand pat in goal? (2024)

It was only 10 days ago that Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas said he believed in the goalie tandem of Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek.

What else could he really say at that point? What was he actually thinking? What must he be thinking now?

If it felt like the ground beneath the Leafs crease was cracking then, what’s going on beneath the surface now — with Campbell hurt (amid continuing struggles) and Mrazek sinking into an even deeper rut?

More pertinently: What does it mean for the trade deadline, now one week away? Can the Leafs really afford to do nothing? In other words, are they at the point now where they must do something just to do, well, something?

It sure feels like it.

Just last week, we wondered about the marketplace and whether the lack of definitive upgrades on Campbell and Mrazek would force the Leafs to put all their hopes on Campbell.

In his next start, Campbell gave up another four goals in a shaky win over Seattle. Two days later, the Leafs announced he would miss at least two weeks with a rib injury. Which meant more Campbell uncertainty as well as a crease that would belong to Mrazek, or so it seemed anyway.

Eight goals later and it’s no longer a sure thing that Mrazek will, or even should, start the next game against Dallas. (Sheldon Keefe wasn’t prepared to say after Sunday’s loss.) That the Leafs even had to have a conversation about starting Erik Kallgren ahead of Mrazek in the outdoor game spoke to their confidence, or lack thereof, in Mrazek.

This goal can’t go in under any circ*mstances.

Hinostroza from an INCREDIBLE angle. 😳 pic.twitter.com/Ry1Hc19e0h

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 13, 2022

Neither could the first two that somehow wormed their way past Mrazek against Arizona a few nights earlier. Shots are going in that aren’t even chances — aren’t anything, really. Rebounds are being kicked every which way.

And with Campbell looking like an even bigger question mark than before (maybe the time off will be beneficial?), the Leafs may have no choice but to do something, anything, even if the goalie in question may be no better, ultimately, than Campbell and Mrazek.

Doing nothing suddenly doesn’t feel like an option. Even a sideways choice like Anton Forsberg, with 77 career starts, might be necessary. Or maybe a more risky swing like Semyon Varlamov, who turns 34 next month and has another year left at $5 million on the cap.

Can Dubas convince Marc-Andre Fleury to come to Toronto? (And somehow find a way out from the Mrazek contract?)

Campbell and Mrazek have been among the least effective goalies in the league for 2.5 months now.

Lowest save percentages since Jan. 1:

1. Jonathan Quick: .879
2. Jack Campbell: .882
3. Alex Nedeljkovic: .884
4. Martin Jones: .884
5. Jon Gillies: .885
6. Petr Mrazek: .885

*Min. 10 starts

— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) March 13, 2022

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What if the playoffs roll around in May and nothing’s changed? What if Mrazek and Campbell are in more or less the same place? What if no one’s grabbed the net? What if goaltending is the reason the Leafs lose in the first round again — and management did nothing to address it at the trade deadline, when alarms were going off? What if the Leafs, a team that’s good enough to win the Stanley Cup, is felled by goaltending somewhere along the way after that?

Can Dubas and the rest of the management team really cross their fingers and hope at this point?

This team can’t go anywhere with goaltending like this.

I’m all for pragmatism. There may be no choice here. A move just to make a move feels necessary.

Five Points

1. Aggression

Outside of the GM and two goalies (Campbell and Mrazek), there’s probably no member of the organization feeling more pressure right now than goalie coach Steve Briere.

It falls to him to re-instill confidence in Campbell and get Mrazek to play more consistently.

According to Mrazek, Briere has been working with him on aggression, on “settling in the crease more.”

“Be aggressive when I have to be, and don’t be as aggressive as I was years ago,” Mrazek, dubbed “Raz” by Briere, explained of the coach’s teachings.

Channelling that aggression seems to be the real challenge for Mrazek. The 30-year-old had never worked with a goalie coach until he joined the Ottawa 67’s as a 17-year-old. He’d come up in Czechia stopping the puck any way he could.

Goalie coaches have been trying to rein in his aggressive tactics ever since.

“There’s (times) that I can be more in the crease, and then when the time’s right just to get out of the crease, get aggressive, and be ready for a shot,” he said.

2. Goalie work

Efforts to improve in every which way were evident on Friday when Briere put Mrazek and Kallgren through a full on-ice workout, with help from skills coach Denver Manderson.

Early on, Briere told the goalies he would fire 14 shots, starting on the right side of the slot — seven for each goalie. The goal was to keep at least 13 of those shots from entering the net, which made for a .930 save percentage (more or less), Briere said.

Mrazek and Kallgren each let only one shot pass.

Mrazek stopped all seven he faced when Briere slid to the left side of the slot. Kallgren gave up a goal on the first and stopped the rest.

Shortly thereafter, the Leafs goalie coach had his pupils start on the left post, slide cross-crease as the puck moved, and then slide back again to stop the shot.

In another drill, Briere stood atop Mrazek’s crease and threw pucks down on the ice. Manderson found them wherever they landed and quickly shot, forcing Mrazek to react to the chaos accordingly. “These are the hardest ones,” Briere said, “when you don’t get to feel a rebound.”

More work, clearly, lies ahead.

3. Top heavy

The Leafs have been hugely dependent on their dominant No. 1 line of Auston Matthews, Michael Bunting, and Mitch Marner for offence.

To what degree?

The Leafs are going to need more from elsewhere at some point.

With John Tavares and William Nylander slumping for months now, Jason Spezza-Wayne Simmonds-led fourth lines providing little (in offence or possession), and David Kampf-led units tilting the ice but not scoring, this has become a one-line team.

4. The no-quit line

One thing that’s made the combination of Ilya Mikheyev, Kampf, and Pierre Engvall so effective: They do not quit on any shift. Their collective pursuit of the puck is unrelenting. They’re like a swarm of gnats who just won’t leave dudes alone.

This shift against Columbus started with a defensive zone faceoff. Watch how the trio wins the puck back again and again after moving it up the ice and into the O-zone:

The shift continues. The pressure does, too.

5. Brodie/Holl

Justin Holl seems to be enjoying his recent partnership with T.J. Brodie.

“He’s smart. He’s always in the right spot. He’s really good with his quick passes and getting the puck going the right direction,” Holl gushed of Brodie recently.

Holl went on to add that Brodie excels in “crisis management,” a phrase that seems to perfectly encapsulate cool-as-a-cucumber-in-a-bowl-of-hot-sauce Brodie. “Like, when you need him to bail you out or make a desperation defensive play, he’s always there,” Holl said. “He’s really good at it.”

The sample size is still pretty small — 123 minutes over eight games — but the results of Brodie-Holl are encouraging (and not unlike those Holl once posted with Muzzin): 59 percent expected goals.

Brodie and Holl have been Dean Chynoweth’s go-to pair for important defensive zone faceoffs.

Holl’s success with Brodie (and Rasmus Sandin before that) seems to reinforce the idea that the problems of the Muzzin-Holl combo were more Jake Muzzin-related (and goaltending) than not. It also makes you wonder where the Leafs go on D from here.

Is Brodie-Holl their second pair moving forward, even after the deadline? If so, what does that mean for Muzzin when he returns? What about Morgan Rielly — who waited years to find a partner like Brodie? Are the Leafs now trading for a defenceman to play with Rielly? Or do they eventually reconnect him with Brodie?

So much feels unsettled here.

Bonus Point

It sure feels like a suspension is coming for Matthews. He will have a hearing with NHL Player Safety on Monday for his cross-check on Rasmus Dahlin. A fine, along with the penalty he served on Sunday, seemed like it might have sufficed given Matthews’ lack of disciplinary history. Even for a game, Matthews’ absence would hurt. It’s kind of the last thing the Leafs need right now, on top of everything else going on.

Things I Think I Think

The Leafs may be costing themselves the division

If they can’t leapfrog the Panthers and Lightning for the Atlantic Division crown this season, a string of recent losses will be to blame. Since mid-February, the Leafs have dropped games to Montreal, Columbus, Buffalo (twice), Vancouver, and Arizona.

It’s not only the division title at stake. Suddenly, the surging Bruins are nipping at the Leafs’ heels. A wild-card spot is now in the cards.

Object of Curiosity

When will Jake Muzzin return — and what will he look like?

Trade deadline matters are most intriguing right now, obviously. That and the situation in goal.

Somewhat related is Muzzin’s recovery from another concussion. He wasn’t seen on the ice for a couple of weeks after he suffered his second concussion in under a month on Feb. 21. Last week, however, he was back on the ice and inching toward a return.

Which raises a few big questions.

1. When does he return? How soon before the regular season ends on April 29? Will he get into 10 games before the playoffs begin? Fifteen? Muzzin still has to rejoin practice and subsequently be cleared for contact. He’s still got a ways to go, and the Leafs will take this thing slow.
2. What will Muzzin look like when he does return? This is the biggest question. Muzzin hasn’t looked right all season. Will the time away from game action be beneficial to his ever-banged-up body? Or will it be that much harder to restart the engine? Muzzin turned 33 last month.
3. Where do the Leafs use him? And how much? This will obviously depend on what Dubas does before the deadline. Does he find a new partner for Muzzin to play with? Does Muzzin belong on the third pair, playing reduced minutes, at this point?

So many questions …

(Top photo: Andre Ringuette / NHLI via Getty Images)

Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Cap Friendly, and Hockey Reference

Jonas Siegel is a staff writer on the Maple Leafs for The Athletic. Jonas joined The Athletic in 2017 from the Canadian Press, where he served as the national hockey writer. Previously, he spent nearly a decade covering the Leafs with AM 640, TSN Radio and TSN.ca. Follow Jonas on Twitter @jonassiegel