Stein gains another double-digit poll lead from unexpected source (2024)

The North Carolina governor’s race enters the final nine weeks with Democratic nominee Josh Stein moving ahead of Republican Mark Robinson in five more polls, including the latest from Fox News.

Meanwhile, the most four recent polls on the presidential race has North Carolina increasingly as a toss-up state with two having Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris ahead by 1-2 percentage points and two showing former president Donald Trump ahead by 1 percentage point.

The North Carolina governor’s race is being projected as potentially the highest profile with steady national media coverage, particularly given Lt. Gov., Robinson’s often-bombastic campaign rhetoric.

According to the Real Clear Politics roundup as of Friday, Attorney General Stein leads Robinson by a 54% to 43% margin in the Fox News poll that was released Wednesday of 999 registered voters.

Stein also is ahead 47% to 41% in the Emerson College/The Hill poll out Thursday involving 850 likely voters.

The fivethirtyeight.com website listed those polls, as well as three more that were released last week: Activote has Stein ahead 54% to 46% with 400 likely voters; On Point Politics/Red Eagle Politics of 812 likely voters has Stein up 48% to 38%; and the latest The Telegraph poll of 812 likely voters has Stein leading 44% to 40%

The latest High Point University Poll of 1,053 registered voters has Stein with a 48% to 34% margin over Robinson.

The latest New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted of 855 registered voters from Aug. 9-14, had Stein up 49% to 39%.

The latest YouGov Blue, conducted of 802 registered voters from Aug. 5-9, had Stein with a 46% to 36% advantage.

The 270towin.com website lists two other governor’s race polls: Cook Political/BSG/GS Strategy, released Aug. 15, with Stein leading 48% to 40%; and Cygnal, released Aug.9, had Stein ahead 43% to 38%.

The Cygnal poll is sponsored by Carolina Journal, a right-leaning media outlet associated with the John Locke Foundation.

Fox News tea leaves

The Fox News poll may be the most noteworthy of the latest batch for the governor’s race given it also has Trump leading Harris by a 50% to 49% margin.

The Fox News poll appears to mirror the latest Elon University Poll, which focuses on favorability of candidates rather than asking participants for their vote choice.

The Elon poll found Stein with a 44% very or somewhat favorable impression on participants, along with a 29% very or somewhat unfavorable impression. In terms of gender, 46% of women and 41% of men were favorable, while 36% of men and 24% of women were unfavorable.

For Robinson, 30% were very or somewhat favorable, along with 50% very or somewhat unfavorable impression. In terms of gender, 40% of men and 23% of women were favorable, while 53% of women and 45% of men were unfavorable.

“Our data shows a clear favorability advantage for Josh Stein over Mark Robinson,” said Jason Husser, the poll’s director and a political science professor at Elon.

“This is not because Stein seems exceptionally popular — his overall favorability is similar to Harris.

“Rather, Stein’s 14-point favorability advantage over Robinson comes from Robinson being far less popular than Trump among both Republicans and independents, that Robinson does not have near the base in North Carolina that Trump has.

“It makes for a real uphill battle for Robinson to win this race.”

Another potential factor is that the Elon poll found 16% of Republicans willing to split their presidential and governor vote, compared with just 6% of Democrats.

Husser said in a tight race, ticket splitting could contribute to a Stein victory, just as it did for Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in defeating incumbent Republican Pat McCrory in 2016 and Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Forrest in 2020.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball

The Sabato’s Crystal Ball, comprised by Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, has shifted the governor’s race from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.” The crystal ball also includes the categories of likely and safe for either party.

“While this helped endear Robinson to the grassroots, he is known for making comments on issues ranging from education to guns to LGBT issues that are, at a bare minimum, provocative and divisive.”

Sabato said that Stein, “at least in his ads, has generally avoided mentioning some of his opponent’s more conspiratorial views, although he has highlighted some of Robinson’s conservative statements on abortion.”

Meanwhile, Sabato cites that Robinson, “in fits and starts throughout the race, has tried to soften his image, a recent example being an ad he did with his wife addressing the abortion issue.”

But, in terms of ad support, the playing field has leaned heavily in Stein’s favor so far: according to AdImpact Politics.

“Stein was at a better-than 2-to-1 advantage as of mid-August and led 17-to-1 in future reservations — although we strongly suspect the latter figure will eventually become less lopsided.

Sabato cautioned that Stein’s lead in the most recent polls may shrink closer to the Nov. 5 general election.

“Given North Carolina’s inelasticity — double-digit wins, for either side, are relatively rare — we have to think some of Stein’s leads are overstated,” Sabato said.

“As WFAE’s Steve Harrison noted while discussing some of Stein’s seemingly rosy polls, in 2020, polling aggregates suggested that Cooper was on track to win by 11 points — his eventual 4.5-point margin of victory was less than half that.

“While we would be surprised if Stein wins by, or even surpasses, Cooper’s 2020 margin, we do feel comfortable designating him as a modest favorite.”

The allegations of improper conduct in the Balanced Nutrition nonprofit by members of the Robinson family “will likely be received differently based on party identification,” said Brandon Lenoir, a professor of political communication and campaigns at High Point University.

A Robinson campaign spokesman is calling the DHHS review of the closed Greensboro nonprofit operated by his wife, Yolanda Hill, and their daughter Kimberly Cephas as an example of the Cooper administration “weaponizing the bureaucracy.”

Lenoir said it is the “undecideds who are the big question mark. How they react to the investigation will potentially impact the outcome of the election.”

Latest presidential polls

The High Point University poll has Harris with a 46% to 45% lead.

Regionally, the HPU poll finds Trump leading by 18 percentage points in western North Carolina and with a 2-point edge in the southern and coastal portions of the state. Voters in the Charlotte area are split evenly, while Harris leads by 5 points in the Triangle and by 4 in the Triad.

“Whether the GOP convinces those less-than-certain ‘probable’ voters — 12% of all registered voters — to show up for the Trump-Vance ticket, or whether the Democratic Party convinces them to stay home, vote third-party, or even switch to Harris-Walz, may determine the outcome of the national contest,” according to poll officials.

The Emerson/The Hill Poll has Trump ahead 49% to 48%, while Bloomberg News/Morning Consult has Harris leading 49% to 47%, The Telegraph with Trump up 45% to 44%, On Point Politics/Red Eagle Politics has Trump ahead 50% to 46%, and American Principles Project with Harris up 47% to 45%.

Sabato said that although North Carolina is in its toss-up column at the presidential level, “it is almost certainly more of a ‘must win’ state for Donald Trump than it is for Kamala Harris.”

“So, as Election Day nears, increasing Republican investment could help Robinson close the gap.

“But we also feel that, as most recent Democratic nominees for governor in the state have done, Stein is also positioned to outperform the top of the ticket.”